Wednesday, December 2, 2009

College Football.....

I am going to digress a little bit and talk a little bit about college football. I really LIKE the fact that college football does not have playoffs for three reasons:
* Game early on the season have a lot of importance
* Bowl season is my favorite time of the year
* Teams have to schedule better competition out of conference to jockey for position.

Right now there are 6 teams that have a chance at the national title
* Florida
* Alabama
* Texas
* Cincinnati
* Boise State: They are effectively eliminated because both TCU and Boise don't play anymore. Unless there is a sway in the writers and coaches poll, Boise can't catch TCU and the winner of UF/'Bama.

For the following discussion, I have assumed the following for this weekends critical games:
- Florida has a 60% probability of beating Alabama
- Texas has an 85% probability of beating Nebraska
- Cincinnati has a 55% probability of beating Pitt
- If Cincinnati wins, they will pass TCU in the polls by adding another quality win. Right now TCU is killing them in the human polls and Cincinnati has a big edge in the computers. A solid road win against a top-15 team should give Cincinnati the edge.

I can't remember this many teams being undefeated for this long. Here are the most like scenarios:

1) Florida vs. Texas (Probability: 51%)
Simple: Florida has to beat Alabama and Texas has to beat Nebraska

2) 'Bama vs. Texas (Probability: 34%)
Simple: Florida has to lose to Alabama and Texas has to beat Nebraska

3) Florida vs. Cincinnati (Probability: 5.0%)
Florida and Cincinnati win, Texas loses

4) Alabama vs. Cincinnati (Probability: 3.7%)
Alabama and Cincinnati win, Texas loses

5) Florida vs. TCU (Probability: 4.1%)
Florida wins, Cincinnati and Texas lose

6) Alabama vs. TCU (Probability: 2.7%)
Florida wins, Cincinnati and Texas lose

Florida (60% shot at being in title game), Alabama(40%), and Texas(85%) are in a "they win/they're in" scenario.

I feel that Cincinnati (8.7%) should be in if they win and Texas loses, hopefully the writers and coaches agree with me.

TCU (6.8%) needs Texas and Cincinnati to lose.

Right now if you were going to choose the 4 at large BCS teams, it would have to be:
'Bama/FL loser
Boise State
2nd team from Big East: Iowa (BCS #9) or Penn St. (BCS #11)

Big 12: If Texas loses, Nebraska is the Big 12 Champion and I think Texas would be at at-large team, bumping the #2 Big Ten Team

Big East: If Cincinnati loses, Pitt is the Big East Champion and I think Cincinnati bumps the #2 Big East Team

If both Cincinnati and Texas lose, I think Cincinnati gets bumped. Nothing that happens in the Pac-10 or ACC championship games will justify getting a second team in the BCS. Note the Cincinnati has a win over potential Pac-10 champ Oregon St., Boise St. has a win over potential Pac-10 champ Oregon, and TCU has a win over potential ACC champ Clemson.

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